Does a New PM Mean a Rising Stock Market?

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Reading Time: 4m 39sec

• Prices accurate as of approximately 4PM BST on Wednesday 13th July.

🏛 BoJo on the Go

So Boris is on the way out after his Cabinet disappeared quicker than the foie gras at Waitrose. I'm staying away from the actual politics, but it got me thinking. How does the stock market react to a new Prime Minister?

We often see a bounce in opinion polls when there's a new leader at the helm.

It's like when you trade in an old shitty Toyota Corolla for an old shitty for Ford Fiesta, just for a bit of a change. It feels kinda nice to begin with, but before long you realise it's still just a crap car that smells weird.

So does this translate to bigger returns for investors?

Probably not.

As you can see from the figures below, there's no rhyme or reason to the stock market's performance for the 12 months after the UK gets a new leader. One thing it does tell me though, is that the narrative of the Conservatives being great for public markets and Labour being shite doesn't seem to hold much water.

🚜 Can the Price of Copper Predict a Recession?

This is interesting. Recently I read about this idea that the price of copper can be a decent indicator of the health of the economy. It's not that obvious unless you take a close look, but copper is used really widely in all sorts of applications.

Some examples are the copper electrical wire in your house and in power stations, it's used in cars and in electronics, medical devices, heating and cooling elements and heaps of industrial machinery. It has a shitload of uses across all different sectors of the economy.

So with that in mind, it kind of makes sense. If economic activity is on the up, if more stuff is getting made, then more copper will be needed which will bid up the price.

Big Dutch bank ABN AMRO did a study on this in 2014, and they found that there is actually a strong correlation between the price of copper and GDP growth in Europe, the US and China.

Interesting stuff.

So what are the copper tea leaves telling us now?

Not looking great according that recent price chart. BUT, it's not perfect. There are all sorts of issues that can mess with the price of a commodity like copper.

Right now, I think it may be a case of the tail wagging the dog. There are a lot of concerns about a potential recession, which could mean that investors are selling copper in anticipation of a recession.

It's not the whole picture by any means, but it's an interesting data point to consider.

💥 Economy Cranks in May

And here is a great example why the copper price doesn't tell the whole story. The UK economy fuckin' killed it in May, growing by 0.50%. That doesn't sound like a lot, but annualised out that's 6.0%, which is really high for a developed economy like the UK.

Analysts were predicting it to be zero, so this is a big improvement. It's a pattern I'm seeing a lot right now. So much doom and gloom in the media, when the reality is actually not bad at all.

What's the lesson? Don't be sucked into the bullshit narratives. Look at how things are in your own world. Yes, cost of living is crazy high, but are people still going on holidays, moving to better paid jobs and buying new cars? That's what I'm seeing.

💷 Weekly Side Hustle Idea

Estimated Take: £1,500+ over the next year

I've made over £1,500 in the last 12 months from three YouTube videos that are all less than 5 mins long. But this isn't about grinding out a YouTube channel for 5 years. Let me explain.

I made the videos for fun and to practice videography, and I've been contacted four seperate times by companies who want to licence the footage. Two of those were from The Real Housewives of Cheshire, one was for a documentary about a murder and the other was from a posh spa that was opening up in the area.

I'll share what I did.

🏘 Think of a nearby town/village/suburb that is either upmarket and expensive or a tourist 'hidden gem' that gets visitors but isn't mega popular. NOT a city. I live near Manchester, so I chose Alderley Edge, Wilmslow and Knutsford. These are the types of areas where Manchester United and Manchester City players live.

📺 Type in the name of the place on YouTube and see what the results are like. They are probably shit, like stuff from 9 years ago from the local primary school. That's great for you.

🎥 Get a camera and go and make a short video with some cool cuts and footage, timed to some modern, "YouTubey" music. There are lots of free options for this.

✈️ If you have a drone or you can borrow one, this will 10x the earning potential.

📲 Upload the video, then share it to the local Facebook groups for the areas. Just say, "hey everyone, I made this video of the area. It's a hobby of mine. Hope you like it!" They will eat it up.

📩 Make sure you have a contact email in the description. Just put, "for licensing inquiries, email me at......

⏲ Wait

📑 At some point, a producer from somewhere will contact you to license the footage. Give them a quote, sign their release and profit.

Camera quality doesn't really matter. I sold 10 seconds of static GoPro footage for £200. Your phone will probably be fine. The drone I use is just the Mavic Mini II.

The more towns/places you do, the wider the net and the more money you make.

If you want to see the videos I made, here's the link.

By the way, yes, the Reddit review is real 👇

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See you next week.

Jason